The price falls and the contribution increases to buy a property to prevent double losses

Two interest rate hikes in 3 months, borrowing 5 million for a monthly increase of 989 yuan

In recent months, the rate of decline in Hong Kong's property prices has accelerated, but the housing leak happened overnight. Hong Kong banks followed the Fed to raise interest rates yesterday. The four major banks raised the prime interest rate (P) by 0.25%, the second time in September, that is, in three months. The interest rate increase will be accumulated by 0.375%. Based on the loan of 5 million yuan and the term of 30 years, the monthly payment will increase by 989 yuan compared with that before adding P in September. Contributions have increased despite the "drop in property prices", which can be said to be a double loss for people who buy a property. Financial Secretary Chen Maobo reminded yesterday that the United States is expected to further raise interest rates, and Hong Kong's business environment will also be "mumble" under the epidemic. Property prices will fall again, and the public should carefully weigh the risks. (There is also a B1 edition of a news magazine related to interest rate hikes) ◆reporter Li Zitian

As expected by the market, the Federal Reserve announced yesterday to raise the federal funds rate by 0.75%, the latest 3.75% to 4%. Under the linked exchange system, the pressure on the capital cost of Hong Kong banks has also increased sharply. HSBC and Hang Seng successively raised the Hong Kong dollar prime rate (P) by 0.25% yesterday, and the latest P is 5.375%, effective today.

BOC Hong Kong also raised P by 0.25% to 5.375%, but it will take effect next Monday. Standard Chartered will raise P from 5.375% to 5.625% next week. The market expects that with leading banks raising interest rates, other small and medium-sized banks will follow suit in the next few days.

Taking into account the adjustment of the "cap rate", the disguised accumulation of 0.625%

On the surface, this is the second time that the Bank of Hong Kong has added P in this year, and the cumulative rate is 0.375%. Based on a loan of 5 million yuan and a term of 30 years, the monthly payment will increase by 989 yuan compared with before adding P in September. However, Huang Yongxin, the acting managing director of Rica Court Mortgage, pointed out that because the bank has raised the upper limit of the lock-in interest rate of H mortgage many times earlier, under the combined influence, the upper limit of the lock-in interest rate of the H mortgage of large banks is now P minus 2.25%, and the bank increases P to 5.375%. As a result, the actual mortgage interest rate for second-hand properties has risen to 3.125%, which is equivalent to a cumulative interest rate increase of 0.625%. Using the above example of borrowing 5 million yuan, the monthly payment has increased to 21,419 yuan. Compared with September, the upper limit of lock-in interest rate and P Before the rate hike, it increased by 1,663 yuan (8.42%).

It is worth noting that although the United States started this round of interest rate hike cycle in March and has raised interest rates 6 times so far, the one-month interest rate (HIBOR) linked to the H-Board in Hong Kong has not been significantly increased during the initial several interest rate hikes. Changes, the one-month interest rate in Hong Kong did not start until the United States raised interest rates sharply in June. Based on the one-month interest rate in Hong Kong before the sharp interest rate hike in June in the United States, the one-month interest rate in Hong Kong was about 0.18375% (as of May 23). The interest rate is about 1.48%. Taking the above loan of RMB 5 million as an example, the monthly payment at that time was about RMB 17,208. Compared with today’s (after raising the upper limit of the lock-up interest rate and adding P twice), the monthly payment for newly built and second-hand properties is 5 During the month, the increase was 4,211 yuan or 24.5%, which greatly increased the burden on housing.

The property market sounded the alarm, CCL fell 8.9% during the year

Chen Yongjie, vice chairman of the Asia Pacific region and president of the residential department of Centaline Properties, said that the current economic and property market conditions in Hong Kong are not optimistic. CCL has recorded a decline of 8.9% in the first 10 months of this year, and property prices have continued to decline. Negative equity, silver main listings and new listings have all hit multi-year highs. At the same time, both new and second-hand transactions have slowed down significantly, reflecting that the real estate market has sounded the alarm. The U.S. rate hike will keep the Hong Kong dollar interest rate rising. It is expected that the banks in Hong Kong will raise the prime interest rate again. The interest rate hike will undoubtedly increase the public's burden of housing supply and make the property market even worse.

He pointed out that although the United States is expected to reduce the rate hike as soon as next month, there is an opportunity to extend the rate hike cycle, which can be described as prolonged pain for the housing market. In the first 10 months of this year, the property market recorded more than 37,200 first-hand and second-hand transactions. It is expected to record about 44,000 transactions in the whole year, which will be a record low since records began in 1996. In terms of property prices, at a rate of 2% monthly decline in property prices, it is expected to drop by 6% in the fourth quarter and by 15% for the whole year, and individual housing estates may even drop by 20%. He said frankly: "This is already a danger signal for the property market. I hope the government will take measures in accordance with the current situation, review the hot property market, reduce the hot property in time, and stabilize the economy."

BOR rises, Hong Kong banks tend to add P

Cao Deming, chief vice president of Meridian Mortgage Referral, said that the interbank rate has been rising. The HIBOR of one month yesterday was 3.21%, and it has remained above 3% for 9 consecutive working days. It is believed that HIBOR will challenge the level of more than 3.5% in one month this year. Banks in Hong Kong may raise P again after the interest rate meeting next month, by about 0.25% or more. Zhuang Jinhui, CEO of Star Valley Mortgage Referral, and Wang Meifeng, Managing Director of Centaline Mortgage, both expect the bank to increase P. Zhuang Jinhui expects that P will increase by 1% in the next year.

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