細價樓第二波回升?

Blog 2016-03-18 1.8K

上星期不同的樓市指數都出現了一個異象，就是小陽春之後竟出現「旺量不旺價」，各指數價格都表現下調，有人認為這個是「假陽春」；另一邊廂，亦有一種看法是以差餉物業估價處的指數去作推演，假設租金繼續下跌，樓價就會被租金帶動再作新一個回合的價格調整，問題是租金是否繼續下跌？和為何市場「旺量不旺價」？這關鍵十分重要！我有責任將我看到的和公眾分享！

第一波的小陽春是由1月15日開始由租務上的變化帶起的，11月開始的劈價勢，令到購買力觀望了好幾個月，因為市場日益看淡，最後觀望的剛性需求不少轉買為租，令租務成交大升，後果自然是租務二手的放盤量減少，盤量大減自然令價格止跌回穩，於是，在租金停止下跌的同時樓價卻愈來愈平的關係，不少購買力就再回到買賣市場去，小陽春的動力就是這樣由租金停跌下引起！但為何買賣指數在上一、兩個星期都出現下跌？這是因為主流購買力選擇了「將貨就價」即是說當一線盤租不到的時候，就下游往二三線屋苑租次一級的單位（包括更平或更細），租的呎價略平，其實不是等於租金下跌，只是購買力選擇了次一等的單位而已，其實價格仍在上升中，這亦是一眾指數看不到的盲點。

但當下游租盤因為成交增加而變得愈來愈少的時候，價格就會最基礎地上升了，上期祥益「屯門樓市租賃成交呎價領先指數」的成交，仍然包括一些6-7000元的成交，但是到了今期已經全部在8000元以上，新常態的「貼地硬升」，其實相當可怕，這就是筆者堅持做「最後一個好友」的原因，在市場上來說，「等」才是最大代價！

今期祥益「屯門樓市呎價領先指數」，無論買或租也開始上升，當租金在未升定之前，遇上屯門私樓樓價有大量2-300萬單位的時候，就會出現細價樓第二波回升，願筆者看錯，看官珍重三思！

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2025-07-03 Squarefoot Editor

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