Hong Kong's Wen Wei Po (Reporter Chan Choi Sin)'Occupy Central' has lasted four weeks,the impact on the retail market and the property market gradually emerge.Centaline founder Shih Wing-ching said yesterday that 'Occupy Central'will affect our economy and increase the difficulty of the implementation of future policy will also slow down the overall development of Hong Kong. He said that taking into account factors that US interest rates next year,the long term will make our economic growth may lag behind compared to other mainland cities,Hong Kong property prices have also found a downward trend. Economic Research Department of the Bank of East Asia chief economist Tand Shui On more expect property prices in Hong Kong from now to 2016 will fall up to 20%.
Shih Wing Ching yesterday to attend the 15th anniversary of the Central City Index seminar said that Hong Kong property market outlook remains subject to the current political disputes,the impact of the economic slowdown and the US rate hike factors, future market trend will appear a downward trend.
The property prices first depend on the supply volume
Shih Wing Ching believes 'Occupy Central' will eventually resolved, but the participants in the future will continue to be a variety of ways to achieve its political objectives. The effects of exercise a certain extent, to the policy capacity of the Government to increase the difficulty of the implementation of future policy, even slow down the overall long-term development of Hong Kong, Hong Kong's economic growth will likely lag behind when compared to other mainland cities.Indeed, a recent Institute of Economics and Business Strategy University of Hong Kong forecast this year economic has been revised down to 2.2%.
In addition,deepen the reform of the mainland success or not will also affect the overall HK economic performance in the future,past investment from the mainland visitors to Hong Kong have a positive stimulus to a certain extent boost the property market.In general,the greatest impact on the local property market is the government's future housing supply is that sufficient or not.
U.S rise the interest rates which have reduced the sentiment of buying properties
Except for the political factors, the US interest rates reduce the return on investment in real estate,an adverse impact on the property market.He believes that the Fed rate hike is in the pipeline,but not necessarily into the rate hike cycle. Expected to raise interest rates after the implementation of the authorities, depending on market reaction and then decide the pace and magnitude of the rate hike.
He expects the rate hike will greatly reduce the public desire to buy property, especially the big luxury investment property will have the significant effect,but just has little effect on the first-hand units which involved in small amount of price.The developers to accelerate capital returns recently,frequently Sale to the goods do arrive,such as rotation,so the new property turnovers buoyant.On the other hand,second-hand owners still held strong attitude on the asking price, now more sidelines,so the second-hand property market was lukewarm.
Centaline,Senior Associate Director Wong Leung Shing yesterday said, 'Occupy Central' cause the buyers to the sidelines,resulting in reduced volume of second-hand property transactions, some of the owners have a slight price reduction on the asking prices,the prices index also slightly softened. The latest Centa-City Leading Index (CCL) as well as large estates Central City Leading Index (CCL Mass) Genesis have recorded second highest, New Territories West and East index continued to rise,contrary to the Hong Kong and Kowloon urban property price movements.He expects the next index performance will be repeated rampant development.
Tand Shui On said he felt worries about the economic outlook in the future. Mainland visitors have redeuced to come to Hong Kong,coupled with its spending power as before,while exports contribute the largest share of our economy has always been,but now the mainland economic slowdown, Hong Kong's exports will inevitably be dragged down.He was referring to the property development mainly consider three factors,including housing supply, consumption of the mainland visiotrs and low interest rate environment and the current performance of the three factors are not optimistic.
