Centaline Midland expects property prices to peak again next year

2021 is coming to an end. This year, the property market has benefited from the epidemic and stabilized and once again climbed to a historical high. The annual property prices are expected to rise by 6%. Looking ahead to the property market next year, Midland Realty predicts that property prices will rise by 5% to 10%, another record high. Centaline Property also announced the property market outlook on the same day, boldly predicting a 10% rise in property prices next year, and large units benefiting from customs clearance are more likely to rise by 13% to 15%. Second-hand transactions are expected to continue to be active next year, and the first-hand transaction is expected to reach 20,000, challenging the new high after the implementation of the first-hand rule in 2013. reporter Yan Lunle

The property market price and volume have performed well this year, with property prices even breaking through historical highs for a time. Liu Jiahui, chief analyst of Midland Realty, pointed out that this year the "Midland Property Price Index" has risen from a low in the end of January to a record high in August. Afterwards, it has been held at a high level. It has fallen by about 2.5% so far, but it still rose by nearly 6% throughout the year. %. It is seen that the trading activity of new housing estates is stronger than that of traditional housing estates. In order to reflect the data more comprehensively, the number of housing estates in the Midland Property Price Index will increase from 100 to 138.

Second-hand registration this year or a 24-year high

In terms of trading, this year's second-hand simultaneous "volume rises", the first-hand new market turnover is predicted to be 17,300 units, an increase of about 20% from last year's 14,426 units; sales are expected to record about 226 billion yuan, an increase of about 4% year-on-year Cheng, a 4-year high. The second-hand is also on the green. The number of residential registrations is expected to be 60,000 throughout the year, an increase of nearly 28% from last year’s 46,900, which is the highest in 9 years. As for the registration volume, it is estimated to be about 520 billion yuan, an increase of nearly 38%, hitting 24. New year high record.

Looking forward to next year, Bu Shaoming, Chief Executive Officer of Midland Realty's Residential Department, said that the continued control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in Hong Kong, coupled with the possibility of further customs clearance in the Mainland and Hong Kong, low supply of private properties, a fall in unemployment, and ample funding, will help drive this. The property market. In addition, the mainland has continuously introduced measures to regulate the property market in recent years. On the contrary, Hong Kong's housing policy is clearly committed to increasing supply (such as the northern metropolitan area and tomorrow's Lantau). In addition, the policy level is relatively clear and stable.

New market debut next year or nearly 32,000 units

Bu Shaoming estimates that property prices will rise by 5% to 10% next year, another record high. It is also estimated that there will be 31,770 new projects that have a chance to debut next year, and the actual launch volume is about 18,000. Next year, the first-hand transaction volume is expected to record 20,000 units and 265 billion yuan, both hitting new highs since the first-hand rule took effect in 2013. Regarding second-hand, the number of registrations next year is expected to be 60,000, which is similar to this year, maintaining a 9-year high level; the registration amount is expected to reach 535 billion yuan, a 25-year high.

Centaline also announced the property market forecast yesterday. Chen Yongjie, vice chairman and president of the residential department of Centaline Property Asia Pacific, said that if customs clearance is further resumed, private residential property prices could rise by more than 6% in the first half of next year, breaking a record high. The Centaline City Leading Index (CCL) ) Is expected to rush to 200 points. Next year, property prices are expected to rise by 10%, with CCL reaching 206.5 points. Among them, benefited from the stimulus of customs clearance, property prices2,Large silver units worth more than RMB 10 million are expected to outperform the market and may rise by 13% to 15% throughout the year.

Trading is also optimistic. Chen Yongjie said that next year the number of first-hand transactions is expected to hit a three-year high, reaching 20,000, and the transaction volume is expected to exceed 280 billion yuan, breaking a new record high; second-hand transactions can reach 56,000, with a fair turnover. It is expected to reach 550 billion yuan. In addition, Li Jianhui, the managing director of Centaline Surveyors, pointed out yesterday that there is a serious shortage of land supply for private buildings. He pointed out that the change of government is approaching, and special attention must be paid to ensure that the existing housing and land policies are implemented consistently and that the next government will continue to achieve continuity.

Due to the satisfactory performance of the property market, Chen Yongjie pointed out that Centaline Property Hong Kong’s commission income reached 4.7 billion yuan this year, a 21% increase year-on-year, a record high in the company's history. The company is also actively expanding this year, adding 95 branches during the year, bringing the total number of Hong Kong branches of the bank to 475 and the number of Hong Kong employees to 6,700. It is estimated that the number of target branches will be increased to 500 in the first half of next year, and 300 to 500 people will be recruited accordingly, bringing the total staff to 7,000 to 7,200.

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