Government launched measures to suppress market and the rent is rising
Under government's two strict measures, the trading of the property market is slumped. The real estate industry predicted, the trading volume of the property market will return back after Next Chinese New Year. They also pointed out that the hidden danger of Hong Kong property market is government's measures which are irresolute and do not have clear target. The measures only take effect in short time. In addition, under large demand for small and medium residential properties, the rising range will be 5%-10% next year ( See detail in attached table)
Chen Chao-guo, the valuations and professional consultant managing director of Savills expressed, it is too early to valuate the effect of the SSD and BSD. The actual property market trend only can be checked after two or three months of cooling-off period normally. It is estimated that the trend of property market only can be seen after Next Chinese New Year when the trading volume of the property market will return back.
The measures enlarge the amplitude of the market price.
He continued, Hong Kong property price in high level is because of unbalance of supply and demand. Only increasing supply is the basic of the solution. The measures can not solve the problem in long term and what's worse is they may aggravate the amplitude of the market price. He didn't doubt the ability of government suppressing the property market and neither exclude that the government will launch measure again if the former ones lost the effect. So he reminded investors don't take it slightly and consider government has no ability to cool the market.
As for the luxury property market next year, he predicted, the trend will not have big change if the luxury property market do not have more supply in short term. He felt optimistic on small and medium property market. He pointed that, the minimum salary policy may make the salary of common citizens' increase 5%-10% each year which will equal to inflation. And the effect can be reflected in the rise range of the small and medium properties.
Jones Lang La Salle: Hidden danger comes from government.
Zeng Huan-ping, the Hong Kong managing director from Jones Lang La Salle pointed out, the largest hidden danger comes from the government's irresolution measures. He said the government's measures do not have clear target. Government tried to do all the things but it is impossible because these things are contradict with each other. Government's measures made some of the citizens harder to buy house. The rent certainly is rising since the demand of the rent is increasing.
Both selling and buying in property market are dull currently. Mr. Zeng predicted, the trading volume will return back after next Chinese New Year. The trading volume of second hand residential property next whole year will up to about 80,000 cases which same with this year.
As for commercial property market, two agencies both predicted that, commercial property market will maintain in positive situation because real estate market will be steady index in condition of low interest and instable global economy.
In fact, the buying and selling of the small and medium residential property in Hong Kong still hot. Research department of Centaline Holdings pointed out, the register contract of second hand public house trading in November was 55 cases and the total value was HKD 92.567 million. They were separately rose 48.6% and 56.1% by month. According to the data, the trading in October was active. The register value makes the new peak in 12 years since there had record in September, 2000. The case number also made the new highest record in nearly two years. Thereinto, the case having highest register amount was in Long Da Lou, Lower Wong Tai Sin Estate. It was a unit in 28th floor and the sale price was HKD 2.73 million which was the fourth-highest level in history.
In addition, there were 355 cases accumulatively of second hand public houses above HKD 1 million in first 11 months this year. It was higher 3.2% than number in 2011 which was 344 cases in whole year. And the register amount of the second hand public house in period was up to HKD 615 million. It was higher 1.2% than HKD 608 million which was the amount of the whole year in 2011. But the cases of it were only 411. It less 14.2% than 479 cases which ware the number in whole year of last year.
