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China Insight 中華視野 Price increase in Tier-One cities no longer leading the country 一線城市價格增速不再領先 The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) published its recent research on residential property prices of the 70 mid- to large-cities in the country on 18th May. 65 of the 70 studied cities showed an m-o-m property price increase (not including indemnificatory housing units) in the primary market in April (62 were recorded in March) and 5 showed a falling price (8 were recorded in March). On a y-o-y basis, 46 cities showed a price rise (40 were recorded in March), 23 showed a price reduction (29 recorded in March), while 1 remained at similar levels (1 recorded in March). Although the number of cities showing an m-o-m price increase went up in the month, the degree of increase has changed. The extent of m-o-m price increase of the 4 Tier-One cities have reduced while that of Tier-Two and Tier-Three cities rises. On the other hand, that of yearly price increases of Tier-One and Tier-Two cities continued to rise while prices of some of the Tier-Three Cities changes from falling to rising. The data above were recorded in the month just after the 325 cooling measures were implemented in Shanghai and Shenzhen. Despite the rise in the numbers of cities with price increases, the degrees of increases in different cities have shown a structural change. Some analysts suggests that the rise in demand for Tier-Two-city properties is a result demand for Tier-One cities flowing into Tier-Two cities, with some Tier-Two cities now seeing greater increases in prices than that is seen in Tier-One cities. According to the NBS, the average m-o-m price increase of Tier-One cities have fallen 0.7 percentage points from March’s figure, while price increases for Tier-Two and Tier-Three cities have risen for 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points from March’s figures respectively. The price increase for Tier-One cities in both the primary market and the secondary market has fallen in the month, with Shenzhen even showing a 0.4% price fall in its secondary market. Less affected by developers’ selling tactics and participated by many home-owners, the secondary market is often a better reflection of the overall property market sentiment of a city. Some studies show that the fall in prices recorded by the NBS in Shenzhen’s secondary market does not fully reflect the severity of the hit on the city’s market sentiment. Instead, studies show that, since the implementation of the 325 cooling measures, asking prices of over 60% of the properties on sale in the 125 districts of the city has been lowered, with the situation in Futian being the most serious, where 96% of the asking prices were voluntarily lowered, whereas, Songgang saw the greatest reduction of all regions, where price cuts of up to 39% have been seen. Vigers Group Vigers is renowned in global real estate market for its asset valuation, general practice surveying, building consultancy and facilities management etc. 威格斯提供資產評估、產業測量、建築顧問及設施管理等服務,於環球物業市場均享負盛名。 www.vigers.com Tel : +852 2342 2000 Email: info@vigers.com 國家統計局於5月18日公布70個大中城 市住宅銷售價格。4月份70個大中城 市新建商品住宅中(不含保障性住房),環比 價格上漲的有65個(上月錄62個),下跌共 5個(上月錄8個);同比價格上漲的有46個 (上月錄40個),下跌23個(上月錄29個), 持平1個(上月錄1個)。資料顯示,環比上 漲城市個數繼續增加,城市間漲勢出現新變 化,一線城市漲幅放緩,二、三線城市漲幅 擴大。而同比一、二線城市漲幅繼續擴大, 三線城市由降轉升。 以上是上海、深圳兩地房地產市場調控政策 (325新政)執行一個月後所錄得的數據。雖 然樓價上漲的城市數量增加,但漲幅卻出現 了結構性的不同。有研究指,二線城市漲幅 加大是由於一線城市需求受控,令部分需求 轉移至二線城市,有些二線城市的漲幅甚至 已超過一線城市。國家統計局初步測算, 4月新建商品住宅價格一線城市前月綜合平 均漲幅比上月收窄0.7個百分點,二、三線城 市比上月分別擴大0.3和0.2個百分點。從前 一直帶領房地產市場漲勢的一線城市「北上 廣深」的新建住宅單位價格和二手單位價格 漲幅於上月雙雙收窄,其中,深圳二手樓價 甚至較上月下降了0.4%。 值得注意的是,相比起一手市場,不受發展 商推售影響並由小業主組成的二手市場更能 反映當地地產市場的真正氣氛。有分析認 為,國家統計中心於深圳錄得的二手市場價 格回落仍然未能全面表現出深圳樓市所受的 影響。有地產中介的研究中心指出,自325新 致實行以後,分析全市125個小區,超過6成 的業主都下調了放盤價格,其中福田區下調 報價的放盤達到了96%,而區域累計跌幅最 大的松崗,有放盤價格下調了高達39%。 19


Squarefoot eMagazine 245
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